Skip to main content

UNDRR Logo

Knowledge

  • Global Assessment Report (GAR)
  • PreventionWeb

Special Events

  • Global Platform
  • International Day for Disaster Reduction
  • World Tsunami Awareness Day

Tools

  • Sendai Framework Monitor
  • Voluntary Commitments

UNDRR

  • UNDRR Africa
  • UNDRR Americas
  • UNDRR Arab States
  • UNDRR Asia-Pacific
  • UNDRR Europe
  • Home
  • About UNDRR
    About us
    As the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, UNDRR convenes partners and coordinates activities to create safer, more resilient communities.
    Learn more

    We Mega Menu - About us

    • Our work
    • Our impact
    • Where we work
    • Funding
    • History
    • Work with us

    We Mega Menu - About us 2

    • Where we work
      • Africa
      • Americas & Caribbean
      • Arab States
      • Asia & Pacific
      • Europe & Central Asia
    • Liaison and sub-regional offices
      • Bonn Office
      • Kobe Liasion Office
      • New York Liasion Office
      • Office for North East Asia and Global Education and Training Institute
      • Suva Sub-regional Office
  • Implementing the Sendai Framework
    The Sendai Framework
    is the global roadmap for reducing human and economic loss as a direct result of disasters.
    Learn more

    We Mega menu - Sendai Framework 1

    • What is the Sendai Framework?
    • Voluntary Commitments
    • The Sendai Framework in action
    • Training
    • The Sendai Framework and the SDGs
    • Global Platform for DRR
    • Regional platforms

    We Mega menu - Sendai Framework 2

    • Partnerships
      • Partners and stakeholders
      • Initiatives
  • News & events
    News & events
    UNDRR organizes the Global, Regional and National Platforms on Disaster Risk Reduction and facilitates training workshops around the world.
    Learn more

    We Mega Menu - News & Events

    • Latest news
    • Media centre
    • Event calendar
    • DRR platforms
    • International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction
    • World Tsunami Awareness Day
    • Awards

    We Mega Menu - News & Events 2

    • Global Platform for DRR
    • Regional Platforms
      • Africa
      • Americas & Caribbean
      • Arab States
      • Asia & Pacific
      • Europe & Central Asia
  • Building Risk Knowledge
    Knowledge
    We provide tools such as the DRR Community site PreventionWeb, publications on good practices, and the Global Assessment Report (GAR)
    Learn more

    We Mega menu - Knowledge 1

    • Understanding risk
    • Global Risk Analysis and Reporting
    • DRR community
      • PreventionWeb
      • International Recovery Platform

    We Mega menu - Knowledge 2

    • Global Assessment Report
    • DESINVENTAR
    • UNDRR publications
    • UN resolutions & reports
    • Terminology
  1. publication
  2. Documents and publications

Shedding light on avoided disasters: Measuring invisible benefits of disaster risk reduction using counterfactual probabilistic analysis


Documents and publications
Working papers
Author(s)
Maricar Rabonza
David Lallemant
Yolanda C. Lin
et al.
Source
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
Cover and title of publication
Publication Year
2022
Number of pages
26 p.

This contributing paper explores the use of probabilistic counterfactual analysis to calculate and highlight the ‘probabilistic lives saved’ from disaster risk management interventions, that would otherwise remain unnoticed. The goal of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) is to ensure that society continues to function, thrive, and recover quickly despite shocks arising from natural or human actions; to ensure, in short, that natural hazards do not become disasters. Success in the world of DRM means ’nothing happens,’ but this poses a dilemma towards recognising and incentivising successful DRM interventions since they are made invisible by the very nature of their success. How must successes be highlighted and learned from if they remain unseen? Likewise, how must policymakers be incentivised to make better risk-informed decisions when they are not credited for pro-active actions nor accountable for the consequences of doing nothing?

This study discusses four types of situations where successful DRM interventions are made invisible:  (i) success made invisible in the midst of broader disaster, (ii) success made invisible by nature of the success, (iii) success made invisible due to yet unrealised benefits, (iv) success made invisible due to the randomness of the specific outcome. Thereafter, two case-studies are studied, a school seismic retrofit program in Nepal and a cyclone evacuation effort in India. An important conclusion that emerges from these studies is that the value of risk reduction interventions should not be judged on the basis of specific outcomes, but on the basis of a broader exploration of potential outcomes. The shift in focus from realised outcome to counterfactual alternative provides a framework to identify and learn from successes in DRM, and reward individuals and institutions who have displayed political bravery in committing to the implementation of DRM measures despite invisible benefits.

Share this
Go back
Also featured on

PreventionWeb

Download
Download file
(1.63 MB/PDF)
Related information
Related links
Quantifying avoided loss to hard infrastructure from hazardous fuels reduction
The Averted Disaster Award: recognizing successful initiatives in disaster risk management
The disasters that never happened: how to soothe rising climate anxiety
After the virtual flood: Risk perceptions and flood preparedness after virtual reality risk communication
Counterfactual analysis
Keywords
Hazards
Cyclone
Earthquake
Themes
Disaster Risk Management
Governance
Risk Identification & Assessment
Country & Region
India
Nepal

Stay in touch

Sign up for UNDRR updates

UNDRR Tools

  • Making Cities Resilient
  • PreventionWeb
  • Sendai Framework Monitor
  • Voluntary Commitments

Contact us

Sendai Framework

© UNDRR

Footer

  • Fraud Alert
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use

Sustainable Development Goals Logo