El Niño and DRR

Projected impacts

El Niño conditions are projected to develop during the second half of 2026, with potentially significant consequences across multiple regions and sectors. While impacts will vary geographically, the greatest risks are expected in countries where El Niño-related hazards intersect with poverty, food insecurity, fragility, conflict, displacement, and limited institutional capacity.

In these contexts, existing humanitarian needs and fiscal pressures may be amplified, placing additional strain on already vulnerable communities and economies. In the past, strong El Niño events have led to weather and climate anomalies that have severely affected middle and upper middle-income countries as well.

• East Africa may experience increased flooding and landslide risks.
• Southern Africa faces heightened drought and water stress.
• South and Southeast Asia face increased risk of drought (the Indian monsoon is already deficient), extreme heat and wildfire.
• Parts of Latin America and the Caribbean may experience flooding, landslides and disruptions to hydropower.

It is important to emphasize, however, that no two El Niño events are identical, and within every country there can be a lot of variation. Therefore, risks need to be evaluated iteratively as the event unfolds.

In the past, some of the impacts have spilled over to entire regions. For example, in 1997-98 El Niño extremely dry conditions led to large scale forest fires in Indonesia that caused haze that also affected Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei Darussalam. In 1982-83 El Niño, and to a lesser extent in 1997-98 El Niño, the operation of Panama Canal was affected due to decreased availability of water in lakes that supply water to the Canal’s locks.

A defining feature of El Niño is that many impacts play out over several months and sometimes over more than a year. Seasonal forecasts provide an opportunity to shift from reactive crisis response to proactive risk management.

The objective of proactive risk management should be twofold:

1. Minimize climate-related losses where risks are elevated; and
2. Maximize potential resource gains where favorable conditions exist (e.g. where extra rainfall is expected, harness those gains for groundwater recharge, agricultural production, ecosystem recovery and energy generation).

El Niño risk management is also an opportunity to strengthen longer-term resilience.

Actions taken before, during and after El Niño-related hazards should not only address immediate risks and benefits but also contribute to reducing underlying vulnerability and strengthening resilience to future climate risks.

Many at-risk countries and UN agencies are already acting and preparing. For example, UN agency anticipatory action plans have been activated in the Sahel, Eastern Africa, the Caribbean as well as Central and South America.

El Niño is occurring on top of a complex risk landscape. It is unfolding amid interconnected and compounding risks, including conflict and displacement, recent droughts and floods, and significant socio-economic and geopolitical pressures. These risks are further compounded by sharp reductions in humanitarian and development funding from traditional donors.

UNDRR recommends three priorities to help countries navigate this complexity and address both short and long-term risks of El Niño:

1. Establish or strengthen multi-sectoral coordination mechanisms

Experience indicates that the impacts of El Niño cut across multiple sectors. That is why the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction calls for a whole-of-government approach for proper risk management.

For example, decreased rainfall may affect agriculture, the availability of drinking water, and hydropower generation at the same time. Important trade-offs need to be made to effectively manage risk at the societal level. It is, therefore, important that countries establish integrated, multi-sectoral command structures where climate and weather information and its implications can be evaluated across sectors to optimize decision-making.

This coordination must occur within governments but should not be confined to them. UN Country Teams can support with technical assistance and convening partners, while regional and international bodies can help coordinate transboundary plans.

2. Transform forecasts into coordinated action at different levels

No two El Niño events are identical, and impacts can vary considerably both between and within countries, as well as over time. Continuous forecasts at different timescales must be integrated into risk management plans:

• Seasonal forecasts should inform strategic planning and financing;
• Sub-seasonal forecasts can guide local preparedness and pre-positioning of resources; and
• Short-range weather forecasts will directly support operations on the ground to protect lives, livelihoods and critical assets.

Equally important is ensuring that these forecasts are translated by the relevant intermediary institutions into impact-based forecasts. This would help planners and communities anticipate both potential risks and opportunities, allowing them to take informed action before impacts materialize.

3. Identify and protect the most vulnerable; and empower local action

Governments and partners should combine seasonal forecasts with vulnerability, exposure and historical impact information to identify communities, livelihoods, infrastructure and essential services most at risk, including those exposed to multiple or compounding crises.

Particular attention should be given to fragile and conflict-affected settings, displacement hotspots and populations with limited adaptive capacity. Targeting resources toward those most at risk is essential for maximizing the effectiveness of resilience building, risk reduction and preparedness efforts.

Moreover, preparedness ultimately depends on local action. We must ensure that communities and frontline organizations have the information, support and resources they need to reduce losses, protect livelihoods and speed up recovery.

1. Helping countries identify the most at risk.

UNDRR is leading the rollout of the DELTA Resilience system, developed with UNDP and WMO, to help countries collect and analyze data on which groups and assets are most at-risk to inform plans and actions.

2. Strengthening early warning systems:

As co-lead of the Early Warnings for All initiative, UNDRR is working with WMO, ITU and IFRC to help countries close the last miles of coverage, especially in the most climate-vulnerable countries.

3. Enhancing anticipatory action:

Action ahead of anticipated hazardous events can prevent or reduce humanitarian impacts. UNDRR has been working to strengthen anticipatory action in key areas:

• Risk-informing humanitarian plans: For example, since 2023, UNDRR has been working with Global Shelter Cluster, which is co-chaired by IFRC and UNHCR, to shift the sector from reactive response to anticipatory action that can reduce displacement.

• Mobilizing finance: This includes mobilizing finance from within the public sector through exercises such as budget tagging, and pioneering parametric insurance products that pay out ahead of disasters.

• Risk knowledge: Curating the evidence base on PreventionWeb so that governments and practitioners can act on the accumulated evidence from past events.

• Read: The impact of El Niño will be shaped by what we decide today →
• Read: Kamal Kishore on El Niño as a test for disaster risk governance →
• Read: Kamal Kishore, Eleven lessons in risk governance from the Panama Canal →
• WMO: Prepare for El Niño →
• UN News: Strengthening El Niño to push 49 million more people into acute hunger →
• FAO: El Niño is coming for agriculture. Here is where the risks are highest →

Climate and disaster risk management

El Niño sits where climate variability and disaster risk meet, which is what comprehensive risk management is designed to handle.

Comprehensive risk management →

Building risk knowledge

Anticipatory action depends on combining forecasts with data on who is exposed and why they are vulnerable.

Building risk knowledge →

Implementing the Sendai Framework

Acting ahead of a forecastable hazard is Sendai Priority 4 in practice: preparedness for effective response.

Implementing the Sendai Framework →

Where we work

El Niño impacts are regional. Our offices support countries across the affected regions.

Where we work →