Kamal Kishore: A “Super El Niño” would be a test for our disaster risk governance systems

News media is rife with stories about the likely onset of a “super El Niño” and the widespread impacts it could have on communities and countries across the world. In light of current disruptions in supply chains, shortages of agricultural inputs, and existing economic stresses, such an event would introduce major alterations to rainfall patterns in some regions into an already dangerous mix of vulnerabilities.

These impacts are not inevitable.

An El Niño is not, in itself, a disaster. Nor is it necessarily even a hazard, though it can spawn hazards – floods, droughts, wildfires, frosts, and cyclones – in many parts of the world. El Niño is perhaps our most closely observed, forecasted, and studied climate phenomenon. Over the last three decades, our understanding of its “teleconnections” – the disruptions it can cause to regional and local climate systems – has improved greatly. The enormous advances in seasonal forecasting achieved through collaboration among WMO, regional climate centres, and national hydro-meteorological services now provide governments with unprecedented opportunities for anticipatory action. We also understand much better how climate variations associated with El Niño affect sectors such as water, agriculture, fisheries, forestry, energy and public health.

The real question is not simply whether a strong El Niño will occur. The important question is whether our disaster risk governance systems are prepared to manage its consequences. Here history offers a useful starting point.

Learning from past cycles

The 1997-98 El Niño was widely described as the most intense El Niño of the 20th century. Its impacts were severe and widespread: drier-than-normal conditions contributed to unprecedented forest fires in Indonesia; Peru experienced devastating floods; extensive crops were lost to drought across the southern hemisphere; intense storms devastated South America and East Africa; a spate of disease outbreaks attacked communities and their livestock; and some 16% of the world's coral reef systems died.

The event also became one of the most extensively studied climate episodes in modern history.

In its aftermath, UNEP, the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), UNU, WMO and UNDRR (then UNISDR) undertook a comparative study across sixteen countries to understand what approaches worked – and what didn't – in managing El Niño-related risks. Michael “Mickey” Glantz led the project, and A. R. Subbiah of RIMES and I had the privilege of contributing the Indonesia case study. It resulted in a provocatively titled book, “Once Burned, Twice Shy?” which is a must-read for anyone interested in understanding El Niño and its impacts.

The lessons from that work have remained with me ever since. If we revisit the lessons of past El Niño events – and combine them with the advances in forecasting, risk analysis, and disaster risk management that have taken place in the last three decades – it becomes clear that many of the worst impacts of an impending El Niño can be avoided or substantially reduced.

A strong El Niño would undoubtedly present a major challenge. But it would also test how much progress we have made in building effective systems of risk governance.

Gentle reader,

Here I want to highlight five big lessons from past El Niño events that are as relevant now as ever:

1. Don’t panic! Rather, treat an El Niño forecast as an “earliest warning”

An El Niño forecast provides several months of lead-time. In effect, it offers an “earliest warning” of climate and weather hazards – drought, flood, wildfire, frosts, cyclones – that may emerge in different parts of the world. It is important to recognize that effects of El Niño vary greatly across regions and even within countries, with most pronounced effects in the tropics – particularly in countries around the Pacific Ocean. During the 1997-98 El Niño in Indonesia, for example, impacts differed significantly across the island of Java itself. Moreover, no two El Niño events are identical, and depending on the stage of an event – onset, peak, decline – effects in different locations can vary considerably.

The good news is that forecasting skill and scientific understanding have improved dramatically over the last three decades. Forecasts are now more granular, and our understanding of teleconnections – large-scale, globe-spanning links in the atmosphere and ocean – is far more sophisticated.

2. Map vulnerabilities and plan across time horizons

Every El Niño unfolds against a unique socio-economic backdrop. Existing vulnerabilities – such as lingering impacts of a recent drought, depleted reservoirs, shortages of agricultural inputs or economic crises – can amplify impacts significantly. Concurrent hazards such as volcanic eruptions or conflicts may further aggravate the situation.

At the same time, study of past analogous El Niño events can help governments anticipate likely scenarios and identify communities most at risk. This is important because the socio-economic impacts of El Niño can last for several years after it has subsided.

Planning must also operate simultaneously across different time horizons. At the strategic level, El Niño forecasts create opportunities to prepare for seasonal, annual and multi-year impacts in different development sectors such as water, agriculture, fisheries and health. At the tactical level, authorities must also prepare for specific short-term hazards – such as floods, cyclones, heatwaves or wildfires – over period of days or weeks.

Anticipation has two inseparable dimensions: knowing who is vulnerable and knowing when and how different risks will materialize.

3. Manage risk across sectors, levels, and institutions

Managing El Niño-related risks cannot be left to disaster risk management agencies alone. Nor can it be treated as solely an agricultural issue, even in countries with large farming sectors.

While hydro-meteorological agencies have a central role in providing forecasts, ministries of finance, water resources, agriculture, energy, public safety, health, social protection all need to come together under a coherent framework to manage risks in a systemic way. The all-of-society, all-of-government approach enshrined in the Sendai Framework must come to life in this context.

Equally important is the role of intermediary institutions – such as agriculture extension services, river basin authorities, public health surveillance agencies – that help convert climate and weather forecasts into decision-making tools for key development sectors to provide actionable guidance for communities. These institutions must be supported politically, financially and technically, and they must have a prominent voice in strategic planning and response systems.

Effective disaster risk governance requires both horizontal breadth across sectors and vertical depth through these silo-bridging intermediaries. But governance structures, however well designed, ultimately depend on communities receiving and acting on timely, relevant information.

4. Communicate risk clearly, transparently, continuously, AND channel resources to communities

El Niño has become a household term – for this we should celebrate the scientific community’s success in raising global awareness. Yet far more needs to be done to foster a more locally relevant understanding.

It is inherently challenging to communicate probabilistic forecasts, and harder to sustain public awareness campaigns on a phenomenon that plays out over an extended period and where the risks continue to evolve. Nonetheless, there is a groundswell of exciting and creative campaigns to expand understanding and empower communities with practical advice. During a field visit to Vanuatu last year, I was encouraged to see example of one such effort in action.

Sustained partnerships between the media, scientists and governments are essential. Print, broadcast and digital media can not only communicate the risks, or report emerging impacts on communities including through grassroots journalism, but also talk about what to do – and what to avoid.

Reaching communities involves more than disseminating messages – it also requires that money be directed to reach the local level. While national level strategic plans for managing the effects of El Niño must be well resourced, it is equally important to place resources directly in the hands of communities and local governments so that they can undertake preventive and anticipatory actions. This ensures that local interventions respond to local impacts and meet the specific needs of communities.

5. Identify and maximize potential benefits

During an El Niño year, some regions that experience very high rainfall in normal years may have fewer floods, while in other regions milder winters may extend growing seasons. Based on historical analyses, such potential benefits can be identified in advance and, where possible, maximized – even if these gains can only partially offset the losses elsewhere.

A systemic governance approach should include this dimension: managing risk well means being attentive to the full range of outcomes, not only the adverse ones.

These five lessons are, in essence, the building blocks of effective climate and disaster risk governance systems. Another strong El Niño could be a real test of how much progress we have made in strengthening them.

A unique opportunity to test – and strengthen – risk governance

Our toolkit for managing climate extremes is considerably more sophisticated than during past major El Nino events. Our analysis of risk is more dynamic – in the face of an impending extreme climate event, we can deploy tools to model not only how it could affect production across sectors, but also its consequent impacts on household incomes, demand for goods and services, and the wider economy. Such a systemic analysis of risk can guide how we design a systemic response.

Over the past two decades, many countries and sub-national entities have developed climate change adaptation plans for future climate extremes. A strong El Niño could be an opportunity to stress-test those long-range plans – to see where the systems hold, and where further investment is needed.

A “Super El Niño” would present a formidable challenge, and its impacts will likely be amplified by climate change. Yet if we are able to bring together improved forecasts, stronger disaster risk management systems, more sophisticated risk analysis tools, and innovative financial tools under a coherent risk governance framework, the outcome for vulnerable communities around the world can be substantially better than in any other El Niño on record.

Further resources

• The national meteorological and hydrological services are the primary sources of forecast information with regard to El Niño.
• The global seasonal outlook is provided by WMO
• In addition, WMO-designated regional centres provide regional seasonal outlooks. These include ICPAC, for East Africa, SASCOF, for South Asia, and CariCOF, for the Caribbean. A comprehensive list is available on the WMO website.