Jamaica

Current socio-economic context and recovery 

Jamaica’s risk profile is shaped not only by hazards, but by underlying socio-economic conditions. With over half of the population living in urban areas, exposure to disasters is increasingly concentrated in cities, where infrastructure and services are under pressure.

At the same time, 38.9% of the population experiences multidimensional poverty, and specific groups — including children (22%), older persons, and people with disabilities (6.3%) — face heightened vulnerability to shocks. Early warning system coverage is moderate.

Source note: Indicator-level sources are shown in the graphic. For full metadata, including definitions, units, time coverage and source links, see the methodology.

Geographic distribution of hotspots for key hazards across the country

Jamaica’s risk landscape is strongly shaped by tropical cyclones. Their impacts are not limited to coastal areas as storms can cross the island, bringing high winds, heavy rainfall and disruption from the south and east towards northern parishes.

Flood risk is more localized but recurrent, especially in low-lying, riverine and urban areas, especially in the southern part of the country. Earthquake risk affects the whole island, with the greatest potential impacts in dense urban and economic centres such as the Kingston metropolitan area.

Sea level rise adds further pressure to coastal zones, especially along the northern coast, where tourism infrastructure, beaches and urban development in areas such as Montego Bay, Ocho Rios and Negril face increasing exposure to coastal erosion, storm surge and flooding.

Drought however, is also a major and recurring hazard affecting food production Jamaica.

Source: UNDRR, 2026 using UNEP Grid MapX

Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Average Annual Losses by hazards

Tropical cyclones dominate Jamaica’s expected disaster losses, generating more than three times the losses from earthquakes and over eight times those from floods. Earthquakes remain a major low-frequency, high-impact risk, while floods and landslides add recurring localized losses that accumulate over time.

Note: CDRI/GIRI AAL estimates cover modelled direct damages to buildings and infrastructure for selected hazards only. They do not yet provide comparable AAL estimates for all relevant hazards, including agricultural drought, heatwaves and wildfires. Figures should therefore be interpreted within the scope of the CDRI/GIRI methodology and not directly compared with estimates from other sources. UNDRR’s Risk and Resilience Metrics Facility aims to progressively develop methodologies to integrate these additional hazards into future comparable risk metrics.

Direct average annual losses (AAL) to infrastructure. (Costliest hazard)

Losses from tropical cyclones are concentrated in buildings and key power and communications networks. Buildings record by far the highest estimated losses, at US$285.2 million annually. Among infrastructure sectors, telecommunications and power have the highest AAL, at US$47.8 million and US$45.0 million, respectively, followed by education infrastructure at US$35.2 million. Estimated losses are lower for ports and airports (US$5.9 million), roads and railways (US$3.9 million), water and wastewater (US$3.8 million), oil and gas (US$3.4 million), and health infrastructure (US$0.32 million).

Most exposed infrastructure by sector (AAL) (second most costly hazard)

Losses from earthquakes are concentrated primarily in buildings, with smaller but notable losses across essential infrastructure networks. Buildings record by far the highest estimated losses, at US$88.2 million annually, followed by education infrastructure at US$10.7 million. Among network infrastructure, power has the highest AAL at US$6.0 million, followed by roads and railways (US$4.8 million) and telecommunications (US$3.9 million). Estimated losses are lower for water and wastewater (US$1.7 million), ports and airports (US$0.44 million), oil and gas (US$0.31 million), and health infrastructure (US$0.10 million).

Expected economic losses in 1-in-100 year event (PML)

Tropical cyclones have the highest estimated PML, at around US$2.29 billion, followed by earthquakes at around US$1.55 billion. Floods show an estimated PML of around US$339.0 million, while landslides have the lowest estimated PML among the hazards shown, at around US$83.4 million. A 1-in-100-year earthquake could cause losses equivalent to around 9% of Jamaica’s GDP, while a severe cyclone could reach about 3% of GDP.

Direct Average Annual Losses to public infrastructure

In the education sector, wind has the highest estimated losses, at around US$16.04 million per year, followed by storm surge at US$15.59 million, earthquakes at US$9.65 million, and floods at US$4.58 million. Health infrastructure losses are lower across all hazards, with estimated annual losses of around US$109,082 from wind, US$106,072 from storm surge, US$65,673 from earthquakes, and US$31,148 from floods.

Direct Probable Maximum Losses to public infrastructure

Wind produces the largest sector-level PML estimates, particularly for power (US$166.9 million) and telecommunications (US$160.5 million). Rain-related losses to roads and railways reach US$81.2 million, while earthquake PMLs are highest for power (US$80.2 million), roads and railways (US$64.4 million), and telecommunications (US$52.5 million). Estimates for floods and storm surges are lower across the sectors shown.

Direct Average Annual Losses to housing

Losses are highest for low-middle and middle income classes across all hazards. Wind records the highest estimated losses, at around US$30.06 million for the low-middle income class and US$30.20 million for the middle income class, followed by storm surge at around US$28.95 million and US$28.82 million, respectively. Earthquake losses are estimated at around US$18.15 million for the low-middle income class and US$18.30 million for the middle income class, while flood losses are lower, at around US$8.57 million and US$8.60 million. Losses for high and low income classes are lower across all hazards.

Probable Maximum Losses of real GDP now and 2050

The overall results indicate that the direct damages from disasters pose significant risks to Jamaica’s economic growth, especially higher return period, more severe scenarios from cyclone and earthquake events. Through probabilistic damages, the real GDP growth is projected to reduce further, and in some cases with significant declines, with a different range depending on the disaster type. The PML impacts on growth range between -0.1 and -0.4% for floods, -0.6 and -1.3% for cyclones wind, -0.5 and -1.6% for cyclones storm surge, and -0.2 and -2.0% for earthquakes. The primary sources of physical damages stem from commercial, industrial, and residential buildings, as well as power- and telecommunication-related critical infrastructure.

Chance of a disaster exceeding public financing capacity (Fiscal gap)

Jamaica has demonstrated strong fiscal discipline and sustained public debt reduction in recent years. However, Oxford DIGNAD modelling shows that severe disaster scenarios can still place upward pressure on debt trajectories. Under the model baseline, public debt starts at around 90% of GDP in 2022. A 1-in-100-year flood scenario raises the debt ratio only moderately, while cyclone wind, cyclone storm surge and earthquake scenarios produce larger increases, with the earthquake scenario reaching the highest trajectory at around 92.8% of GDP.

Sovereign debt due to an extreme event

The modelled 1-in-100-year loss is equivalent to around 19.1% of Jamaica’s 2025 GDP. This is a large potential shock at the macroeconomic level and would be equivalent to around 63.5% of annual government revenue and 56.4% of annual public expenditure.

Although Jamaica is projected to maintain a primary surplus, a loss of this scale could place significant pressure on fiscal space, debt management and post-disaster financing needs. The comparison should be read as a scale indicator, not as a direct estimate of how much public debt would increase after the event.

Bank solvency / capital adequacy considering Average Annual Losses from top hazards

For both securities dealers and deposit-taking institutions, this indicates that a major shock could lead to reduced credit supply, as financial institutions adjust to higher risk and tighter conditions. This highlights a key transmission channel through which disasters can affect the wider economy, by constraining access to finance during recovery.

A severe disaster shock would significantly affect financial sector balance sheets. The increase in capital adequacy ratios following a 1-in-100-year event reflects a contraction in lending and risk-weighted assets, rather than an improvement in financial strength.

Major agricultural disaster losses from 2004 to 2025

Agricultural losses in Jamaica are highly volatile, driven by a combination of storms and droughts. Major events can generate sharp spikes in losses, such as in 2004, when impacts exceeded more than USD 130 million, while other years see relatively limited damage.

Droughts, in particular, can generate significant agricultural losses, as seen in 2015, despite being less prominent in overall disaster loss estimates.

Source: World Bank, 2025.

Disaster losses to assets and consumption

Disaster risk in Jamaica is significantly larger when measured in terms of well-being rather than physical assets. While expected losses to assets represent around 1.5% of GDP, the impact on household consumption rises to over 2.5% of GDP, reflecting how disasters disproportionately affect incomes and livelihoods.

Household consumption resilience after a severe shock

Under the modelled severe shock scenario, the GDP performance score increases from 57 to 69 when resilience measures are included. This suggests a smaller decline or faster recovery in the resilience scenario, depending on the assumptions of the underlying model.

Coastal mangrove protection (avoided AAL)

Without mangroves, annual damages are estimated at around US$136 million. Existing mangroves are estimated to avoid around US$33 million in annual damages.

Coastal mangrove protection (avoided PML)

Coastal ecosystems provide substantial protection against extreme events. In Jamaica, mangroves help protect up to USD 2.4 billion in assets under more extreme scenarios, and around USD 386 million in a 1-in-100-year event.

Source: World Bank, 2019