Jamaica

Current socio-economic context and recovery 

Jamaica’s risk profile is shaped not only by hazards, but by underlying socio-economic conditions. With over half of the population living in urban areas, exposure to disasters is increasingly concentrated in cities, where infrastructure and services are under pressure.

At the same time, 38.9% of the population experiences multidimensional poverty, and specific groups — including children (22%), older persons, and people with disabilities (6.3%) — face heightened vulnerability to shocks. Early warning system coverage is moderate.

Source note: Indicator-level sources are shown in the graphic. For full metadata, including definitions, units, reference years, time coverage and source links, see the methodology.

Geographic distribution of hotspots for key hazards across the country

Jamaica’s risk landscape is strongly shaped by tropical cyclones. Their impacts are not limited to coastal areas as storms can cross the island, bringing high winds, heavy rainfall and disruption from the south and east towards northern parishes.

Flood risk is more localized but recurrent, especially in low-lying, riverine and urban areas, especially in the southern part of the country. Earthquake risk affects the whole island, with the greatest potential impacts in dense urban and economic centres such as the Kingston metropolitan area.

Drought is also a major and recurring hazard affecting food production in Jamaica. Further information on drought risk will be provided soon.

Source: UNDRR, 2026 using GEM Foundation (2026), Bloemendaal, Nadia et al (2020 STORM), JRC Global River Flood map (2024), and UNEP Grid MapX.

Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Average Annual Losses (AAL) by hazards

Tropical cyclones account for the largest share of the modelled AAL, at 71%, followed by earthquakes at 19%, floods at 8% and landslides at 1.7%.

Note: Drought is not included in this AAL distribution, but remains central to Jamaica’s risk profile given the importance of agriculture for livelihoods, employment and climate exposure. Further information on drought risk metrics will be provided soon.

Note: CDRI/GIRI AAL estimates cover modelled direct damages to buildings and infrastructure for selected hazards only. They do not yet provide comparable AAL estimates for all relevant hazards, including agricultural drought, heatwaves and wildfires. Figures should therefore be interpreted within the scope of the CDRI/GIRI methodology and not directly compared with estimates from other sources. UNDRR’s Risk and Resilience Metrics Facility aims to progressively develop methodologies to integrate these additional hazards into future comparable risk metrics.

Direct average annual losses (AAL) to infrastructure. (Costliest hazard)

Losses from tropical cyclones are concentrated in buildings and key power and communications networks. Buildings record by far the highest estimated losses, at US$285.2 million annually. Among infrastructure sectors, telecommunications and power have the highest AAL, at US$47.8 million and US$45.0 million, respectively, followed by education infrastructure at US$35.2 million. Estimated losses are lower for ports and airports (US$5.9 million), roads and railways (US$3.9 million), water and wastewater (US$3.8 million), oil and gas (US$3.4 million), and health infrastructure (US$0.32 million).

Direct average annual losses (AAL) to infrastructure. (Second most costly hazard)

Losses from earthquakes are concentrated primarily in buildings, with smaller but notable losses across essential infrastructure networks. Buildings record by far the highest estimated losses, at US$88.2 million annually, followed by education infrastructure at US$10.7 million. Among network infrastructure, power has the highest AAL at US$6.0 million, followed by roads and railways (US$4.8 million) and telecommunications (US$3.9 million). Estimated losses are lower for water and wastewater (US$1.7 million), ports and airports (US$0.44 million), oil and gas (US$0.31 million), and health infrastructure (US$0.10 million).

Expected economic losses in 1-in-100 year event (Probable Maximum Loss - PML)

Tropical cyclones have the highest estimated PML, at around US$2.29 billion, followed by earthquakes at around US$1.55 billion. Floods show an estimated PML of around US$339.0 million, while landslides have the lowest estimated PML among the hazards shown, at around US$83.4 million.

Direct Average Annual Losses (AAL) to public infrastructure

Tropical cyclones account for the highest estimated losses in several sectors, including telecommunications at around US$47.78 million, power at US$45.03 million, education at US$31.63 million, and ports and airports at US$5.90 million per year. Earthquake-related losses are highest for education, at around US$9.65 million, followed by power at US$6.01 million, roads and railways at US$4.66 million, and telecommunications at US$3.93 million. Flood-related losses are lower across the sectors shown, while landslide losses are reported only for roads and railways, at around US$10.04 million per year.

Direct Probable Maximum Losses (PML) to public infrastructure

Tropical cyclones show the highest estimated losses in telecommunications at around US$191.5 million, power at US$174.7 million, ports and airports at US$26.3 million, water and wastewater at US$18.3 million, and oil and gas at US$12.7 million. For roads and railways, the highest estimated loss is associated with landslides, at around US$83.4 million, followed by earthquakes at US$62.1 million. Flood-related losses are lower across the sectors shown.

Direct Average Annual Losses (AAL) to housing

Tropical cyclones record the highest estimated losses, at around US$59 million for both the low-middle and middle income classes. Earthquake losses are estimated at around US$18.1 million for the low-middle income class and US$18.3 million for the middle income class, while flood losses are lower, at around US$8.6 million for both groups. Estimated losses for the high and low income classes are lower across all hazards shown.

Probable Maximum Losses of real GDP now and 2050

The overall results indicate that the direct damages from disasters pose significant risks to Jamaica’s economic growth, especially higher return period, more severe scenarios from cyclone and earthquake events. Through probabilistic damages, the real GDP growth is projected to reduce further, and in some cases with significant declines, with a different range depending on the disaster type. The PML impacts on growth range between -0.1 and -0.4% for floods, -0.6 and -1.3% for cyclones wind, -0.5 and -1.6% for cyclones storm surge, and -0.2 and -2.0% for earthquakes. The primary sources of physical damages stem from commercial, industrial, and residential buildings, as well as power- and telecommunication-related critical infrastructure.

Chance of a disaster exceeding public financing capacity (Fiscal gap)

Jamaica has demonstrated strong fiscal discipline and sustained public debt reduction in recent years. However, Oxford DIGNAD modelling shows that severe disaster scenarios can still place upward pressure on debt trajectories. Under the model baseline, public debt starts at around 90% of GDP in 2022. A 1-in-100-year flood scenario raises the debt ratio only moderately, while cyclone wind, cyclone storm surge and earthquake scenarios produce larger increases, with the earthquake scenario reaching the highest trajectory at around 92.8% of GDP. This represents an increase of up to around 2.8 percentage points relative to the model baseline.

Sovereign debt due to an extreme event

Tropical cyclone has the largest relative scale across the indicators shown, equivalent to 10.3% of Jamaica’s 2025 GDP, 34.2% of annual government revenue, 30.4% of annual public expenditure and 15.2% of gross public debt. Earthquake is the second largest hazard-specific PML, followed by flood and landslide.

A loss of this scale could create significant pressure on fiscal space, debt management and post-disaster financing needs, particularly if a large share of losses required public support or reconstruction financing. The comparison should be read as a scale indicator, not as a direct estimate of how much public debt would increase after the event.

Bank solvency / capital adequacy considering Average Annual Losses from top hazards

For both securities dealers and deposit-taking institutions, this indicates that a major shock could lead to reduced credit supply, as financial institutions adjust to higher risk and tighter conditions. This highlights a key transmission channel through which disasters can affect the wider economy, by constraining access to finance during recovery.

A severe disaster shock would significantly affect financial sector balance sheets. The increase in capital adequacy ratios following a 1-in-100-year event reflects a contraction in lending and risk-weighted assets, rather than an improvement in financial strength.

Disaster losses to assets and consumption

Disaster risk in Jamaica is significantly larger when measured in terms of well-being rather than physical assets. While expected losses to assets represent around 1.5% of GDP, the impact on household consumption rises to over 2.5% of GDP, reflecting how disasters disproportionately affect incomes and livelihoods. In the modelled resilience scenario, expected asset losses decline only slightly (from 1.46% to 1.39% of GDP), whereas well-being losses fall much more markedly (from 2.58% to 2.01% of GDP). This illustrates that strengthening socioeconomic resilience primarily reduces the welfare consequences of disasters, even when physical asset losses change relatively little.

Household consumption resilience after a severe shock

Under the modelled severe shock scenario, households retain 57% of their pre-disaster consumption level under current conditions. In the resilience scenario, households retain 69% of their pre-disaster consumption. This means that the modelled consumption loss is reduced from 43% to 31%, a reduction of approximately 28%, illustrating how socioeconomic resilience can lessen the welfare impacts of disasters.

Avoided annual flood damage from mangroves

Without mangroves, annual damages are estimated at around US$136 million. With existing mangroves, estimated annual damages fall to around US$103 million. The difference represents approximately US$33 million in avoided annual flood damage.

Assets protected by mangroves under extreme flood scenarios

Coastal ecosystems provide substantial protection against extreme events. In 2013, Jamaica had around 9,800 hectares of mangroves, mostly located along the south coast. Avoided losses by these are estimated at around US$386 million for a 1-in-100-year event and up to US$2.4 billion for a more extreme 1-in-500-year event.

Source: World Bank, 2019