This guidance details a step-by-step approach tailored to the Humanitarian Programme Cycle and development agenda to ensure it is based on comprehensive and robust forward thinking. It is aimed especially at facilitators involved in strategic planning, to prepare and facilitate joint analysis workshops taking place during the development of Humanitarian Needs Overviews using the Joint Intersectoral Analysis Framework (JIAF).
The guidance also provides recommendations on how to use the outputs of scenario development to strengthen Humanitarian Response Plans. Risk analysts and participants in joint analysis workshops can also benefit from the guidance by becoming familiar with key forecasting concepts and definitions and the logical steps and examples presented in this document. It is acknowledged that risk analysis and scenario development in the humanitarian sector do not always follow the standards used in academia and science in general. The proposed approach is adapted to the terminology in use in the humanitarian sector, builds on existing humanitarian risk analyses and scenario development guidance and takes into consideration the scarce resources and time commonly available to develop such analyses during the Humanitarian Needs Overviews (HNO) and Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) development.