Interview with Hans ten Bergen, MASA Business Development Manager

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Interview with Hans ten Bergen
MASA Business Development Manager

Simulation exercises play an important role in helping emergency managers prepare for disasters. They test systems, procedures, alternate plans and equipment while at the same time identifying gaps in response strategies. If done well, simulations can help emergency personnel plan better and increase overall preparedness capacities.

While physical simulation exercises remain an indispensable part of stress-testing any preparedness plan, Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies are increasingly lending a helping hand by sharpening decision making and response plans, says the MASA Group’s Hans ten Bergen.

 

 

 

“MASA provides AI-based technologies that simulate crisis scenarios for natural disasters including earthquakes and floods, and man-made ones - pollution, chemical leaks fires and others,” Hans says.

 

A member of the UNDRR Private Sector Alliance for Disaster Resilient Societies (ARISE), Hans and MASA has been involved in developing new technologies that reduce disaster risk for decades.

 

“After running a simulation, we usually find that our clients, some of which are governments, are very surprised by the results,” he says.

 

“What does this tell them? They aren’t as well-prepared as they thought.”

 

Over the past 20 years, disasters have claimed 1.23 million lives and affected 4.2 billion people, resulting in global economic losses of close to US$3 trillion. Estimates suggest that the situation is likely to become even more challenging due to the impacts of climate change.

 

Statistics already show that the world is experiencing more frequent and intense climate and weather-related disasters, rising 35% since the 1990s. When combined with the increasingly systemic nature of disasters and potential for cascading failures, risk reduction professionals are meeting new and unexpected challenges when developing preparedness plans.

 

THE ROLE OF AI IN ENHANCING PREPAREDNESS

 

Hans stresses that AI can’t replace live simulations. Instead, it can help emergency managers optimize disaster response strategies by creating a more realistic environment, driven by the latest data.

 

“AI simulations can effectively represent complex crisis scenarios and model what the real impacts might be. This helps more than just preparedness and contingency planning – it also helps identify how a disaster might impact different members of the population, leading to better decision-making.”

 

For example, MASA simulation exercises conducted in Blumenau, Santa Catarina, Brazil, helped the city’s crisis managers prepare for recurrent floods that have impacted the area for over 115 years. With water levels rising in the Itajai-Açu river and its tributaries, the simulation involved the evacuation of people affected by the disaster, the opening an operation of shelters, and the organization of a recovery team once the waters had subsided.

 

“We also included smaller-scale crisis such as landslides, traffic accidents, public unrest and hazardous chemical spills to put additional pressure on the 15 agencies that were coordinating the response,” says Hans.

 

“This scenario ran twice over two days, each with slightly different variations. This is one of the big benefit AI offers: the ability to reset a scenario quickly, add new variables, and give the response team an opportunity to make improvements over the first run.”

 

“This offers a big advantage when disasters strike. With more practice, response becomes more effective.”

 

WHY THE GUIDELINES

 

The Sendai Framework, adopted by UN Member States in 2015, calls for the substantial reduction of disaster risk and loss by 2030. The fourth of the Framework’s four priorities for action is to enhance disaster preparedness for effective response.

 

Many communities lack the resources to prepare for disasters, which is why the Framework and the Words into Action Guide on enhancing preparedness is so important, Hans says.

 

“I think the Sendai Framework has made communities more aware of disaster risk in a very broad sense. This Words into Action guide takes this awareness a step further by offering access to experts and organizations who have experience preparing for disasters.”

 

A companion to the Preparedness guide, Design and Conduct of Simulation Exercises – SIMEX, is also available, offering concise guidelines for emergency managers, government officials and other actors responsible for the design and conduct of simulation exercises.

 

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