Consultant (Strengthening meteorological and hydrological services in East Asia)

Background

As weather, climate and the water cycle know no national boundaries, international cooperation at a global, regional and sub-regional scale is essential for the development of meteorology and operational hydrology as well as to reap the benefits from their application.

Our perception of climate change is shaped by the individual regional experience of this change. The alternatives for adjusting to and mitigating of climate change vary between regions. They depend on environmental as well as social conditions
This theme is particularly appropriate at a time when communities are struggling to attain the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, especially in terms of health, food, water security and poverty alleviation, as well as to increase their effectiveness in preventing and mitigating natural disasters, of which 90 per cent are directly related to weather, climate and water hazards.

Meteorological and hydrological information sharing in East Asia is at a less-than adequate level at the present time. First, data-gathering capacity and data quality needs to be enhanced. Second, data-sharing needs improvement. Third, these constraints have emerged against a global background of improving longer-lead-time forecast modeling; dependent, however, on improvements in data gathering and data sharing over a correspondingly larger region.

The same constraints are evident also in relation with climate data. Climate-trend analysis is an increasingly important function to help address concerns of the Governments in Asia about human-induced climate change and climate variability.
Rationale of the study.

A strong consensus has emerged that there is a need to investigate, taking a regional approach, the status of and the need for meteorological and hydrological information sharing, and to assess the capacity of each Member states to collect and share information.

Furthermore, the feasibility study could be the basis for a potential regional program that could be financed by donors and the World Bank, to support capacity building and purchasing of hydrometeorological equipment, and to implement a data sharing protocol in the Region.

There are clear advantages of a regional approach in supporting the NMHSs for the following reasons among others:

(i) the region includes many countries, such that the weather and flood forecasting functions particularly need the information from the neighbouring countries;

(ii) implementation of the system could be much cheaper if the system is designed regionally; for example, the number of the very expensive radars for each country could be reduced significantly.By improving regional coordination, the countries not only will achieve more-accurate forecasting, but also may significantly reduce costs.

A root cause of the under-financing of hydromet services is that the benefits of accurate weather and flood forecasting are not well understood among senior government staff. Good forecasting of weather and flooding is important to saving lives and reducing the economic impact of natural disasters. Furthermore, good weather and flood forecasting, as well as climate expertise, are important for many sectors in the economy, including development and implementation of crop insurance, drought insurance and flood insurance, maximizing the efficiency of power generations including hydropower stations; savings in municipal services including snow removal; and preparation and implementation of land use plans at the local level. It would be helpful to securing the sustainability of any proposed improvements, to improve awareness of the potential value of hydromet services on the part of national governments.

Objectives

The objective of the proposed assignment is to assess existing capacity and identify capacity strengthening needs (human, institutional, and equipment) for each ASEAN member country, taking into account a regional approach in data sharing and analysis.

This should include but not be limited to the following:

a) Review the existing capacity of NMHS in each member state, considering institutional issues (cf., human resources, institutional structure, and budget) and infrastructure issues (monitoring network coverage and quality, equipment age and depreciation, telecoms, modeling expertise, IT). As agreed with the respective agency, review the skill of forecast outputs, using standard WMO measures, and coverage of the agency’s forecasts (resolution, number of urban areas covered, forecasts supplied to emergency management, agro-meteorology, climate monitoring, seasonal forecasting).

b) Assess the NMHS services needs within each member state through the identification of the user community and undertaking needs assessment (agriculture, energy, transport, municipal services, emergency management agencies, water resources agencies, tourism, etc.);

c) Identify the existing meteorological and relevant data collection and exchange procedures among states;

d) Identify all relevant data-sharing protocols and requirements among states, considering, standards for hydrological data exchange within and among states, and others that are relevant. Based on the assessment of the needs within each member state, the data sharing requirements among the member states, and within the scope of an investment budget no greater than 30% of the current annual operating budget from all sources, prepare a proposed capacity building program for each participating state. It should address human resources and skills as well as infrastructure that may include, for example, radars and other monitoring networks, IT upgrade, telecoms improvements, local area modeling, and so on. The capacity building program should be presented in a form that breaks out which components are required for the needs of various users; e.g., which components are required by disaster management, which for farmers, which for energy, etc.

e) Prepare two investment scenarios for the region, one based on the assumption that protocols will be established whereby data are fully and freely shared among the member states, and the second based on data sharing as it occurs today. One hypothesis is that data sharing will result in significant savings and improve forecast accuracy for each member. A test of this hypothesis is important to provide strong justification for the need for a coordinated system.

f) Prepare data sharing requirements and standards to be undertaken among the member states based on their needs and assuming that capacity will be improved.

g) Prepare detailed investment plans for each country program. The costs will include the initial investment, technical assistance needs, and annual running costs, including maintenance of the equipment and software.

h) Identify potential partnerships between national and international weather agencies based on the technical assistance needs identified in the study.

The consultant will travel to all member states (identified below); hold meetings with the directors of the Hydromet service as well as other government agencies who are beneficiaries of the hydromet services.

Outputs of the work assignment

- Draft report: after two months from the start of the assignment.
- Discussion workshops in individual countries with all stakeholders
- Final Report: after three months from the start of the assignment.
- Final Dissemination of findings Workshop under the leadership of the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta with all stakeholders

Specific Functions/Tasks/Duties

- Assess natural hazards, climate variability and climate change;
- Assess user needs assessment with emphasis on agriculture, emergency forecast and early warnings, water resources management and irrigation;
- Evaluate current status of the NMHS and assess of its capacity;
- Assess the economic benefits of weather and climate services at present and benefit of potential NMHS modernization;
- Develop recommendations and a prioritized plan of improvement of data delivery to national users. Proposed activities may include;

(i) low-cost capacity building, data processing, modelling and dissemination initiatives;

(ii) high-priority investments in modernization of the basic observational and IT infrastructure (communications and basic observation equipment);

(iii) phased modernization of the main elements of NMHS infrastructure, institutional strengthening and capacity building.
- Travel will be required to the ASEAN Member states, at the cost of the consultant. Security clearance to be obtained where necessary prior to undertaking travel.

Geographic Coverage

This study will aim to cover the whole of East Asia and the Pacific in phases depending on demand and resource availability. In the first phase the study will cover the following countries Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Philippines, and Viet Nam.

Outline of the report

Chapter 1: Current role of National Hydrometerological Services: Challenges and Opportunities
Chapter 2: User-needs assessment of hydromet services: (the road traffic, railway traffic, maritime, aviation, energy production, civil protection, environment protection, agriculture and construction sectors)
Chapter 3: Socio-economic benefits of hydromet services
Chapter 4: Assessment of hydromet services in individual countries
Chapter 5: Main technical findings:
- Numerical weather forecasting
- Observation network
- Communication, data management and information technology
- Data sharing
Chapter 6: Recommended investment plan

Performance indicators
- Timely delivery of outputs.
- High technical quality of outputs, as evidenced by their acceptance by the World Bank/UNISDR and WMO project team.
- High quality and timely ongoing technical support to the UNISDR/WB/WMO project team efforts.

Qualifications

Education: Advanced university degree in Environmental Studies, Environmental Engineering or equivalent combination of education and experience in a Hydro-meteorological area.

Experience: At least 10 years progressively relevant experience in Hydrometeorology. Working experience in the East Asia Region is a plus.

Language: Excellent written and spoken English. Other East Asian Regional languages will be a plus.

Other skills: Knowledge of climate change issues and climatology. Familiarity with disaster risk reduction, the ISDR system and its partners and the Hyogo Framework for Action, a plus.

Other experience: Proven experience in the desired fields of the study and demonstrated experience of having undertaken similar studies in the past, preferably in the region.
Core Competencies.