Call for Proposals: Bridging the gaps in using risk information for decision making in disaster risk management and early warning in West Africa

UNDRR is the United Nations' focal point for the coordination of disaster risk reduction, working with countries and a broad range of partners and stakeholders to support the implementation, monitoring and review of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 in coherence with the 2030 Agenda and other instruments, for the Mult hazard management of disaster risk in development and the substantial reduction of disaster risk and losses.

UNDRR issues grants, in line with UN Financial Regulations and Rules, to apolitical and not profit-making organisations to facilitate, implement, or carry out activities related to UNDRR's and the partner's mandates and work programmes.

To this end, UNDRR invites not profit-making organisations to submit grant proposals that focus on the project described below.

Rationale

The level of exposure of many countries in West Africa, particularly the Republic of Togo, varies and disasters affect population life and assets differently because of the type of hazards, vulnerabilities, capacities and the knowledge available on the risks themselves. From indigenous to academic knowledge, there is a lack of consolidation and a deficit of projection of possible disaster effects in the next few years in many African countries, including Togo. The necessity to have an updated risk profile remains a key to informing disaster risk reduction actions.

National risk profiles offer valuable information to improve the understanding of risk at the national level. They provide quantifiable data on economic and social disaster impacts. They can help inform disaster management actions already in place or in shaping the first step towards designing new actions to curb the deadly cost of disasters. Advances in risk modeling enable probabilistic methods to provide an indication of the likelihood of disasters and their projected impacts given past and probable future events, enabling more comprehensive risk assessment.

This project aims to undertake a probabilistic multi-hazard risk assessment for Togo that will focus on the 3-5 key hazards that currently cause the majority of human and economic losses in the country (for example droughts, floods, storms and landslides with the possible inclusion of heatwaves or another priority hazard).

The analysis should include calculations of probable maximal losses (PML) in the case of low frequency, high loss impact events that might occur once every 50 or 100 years, as well as the average annual losses (AAL) that can be expected from high frequency, lower loss impact events. It will provide these stochastic calculations based on an analysis of historical information and will include a forward looking future oriented risk up to 2050 taking into account projected climatic and demographic/urbanization conditions. This is particularly useful in the context of climate change, which is increasing the frequency and intensity of hazards, pushing governing bodies to calculate their worst possible impacts in order to be prepared.

Given its specific complexity, specific attention will be paid to determining the risk modeling parameters for drought risk estimation to ensure effective harmonization of assessment methods with emerging global good practice.

The work will be carried out closely with the Agence Nationale de la Protection Civile (ANPC) to facilitate its appropriation of the process and the methodology. They will have a better understanding of the use of risk profiles in their work to inform disaster risk reduction and planning of development actions.

Purpose

Risk profile

The grant aims to support Togo to have an up-to-date risk profile at national level. The information generated by the risk profile will inform policies at national and local levels. The products from the risk assessment will support the use of two key user groups:

• The quantitative risk profile produced with the probabilistic approach will feed into national planning processes to foster the integration of risk into development planning and budgeting decision making. The results therefore should be able to provide AAL/PML analysis and potential impact analysis relevant for the national development planning around disaster risk reduction and also provide insights for continental and regional platforms.

  As such, the risk assessment analysis should specifically include a framework and cases studies of resilience needs to be factored into cost-benefit analysis (CBA) usable by Agence Nationale de la Protection Civile as a decision-support tool for prioritizing disaster risk reduction (DRR) investments and activities. The method applied should be able to provide national level analysis to support the identification of potential risk reduction, risk retention and risk transfer investments. Data should also be presented in a manner that makes it compatible with future downscaling for the assessment of specific investment prioritization.

  The project will aim to undertake at least one workshop in Lome with government stakeholders to present the draft results and their potential application to government planners and officials tasked with the fiscal management of disasters, and investment planning.

• In addition, core AAL/PML analysis identifying high risk areas and populations should provide base layers that can be useful for early and anticipatory action and early warning and early action systems. Information should be presented in such a way as to enable its application in the defining of approximate thresholds of potential impacts for larger disasters as a tool to strengthen preparedness and risk reduction measures. The project will also aim to conduct at least one workshop with national institutions to analyze their strengths and the areas of improvement in using risk information in the disaster risk management cycle, with a focus on the use of risk information for impact-based early warnings and early actions.

Outcome

The Grant is expected to have the following outcomes:

• National investments in disaster risk reduction and national and sub-national development plans are increasingly evidence-based thanks to the new risk profile, whose information on hazards, exposure and vulnerability and probabilistic risk is available on a digital database.
• Capacities of national counterparts are strengthened to develop or reinforce early warning systems through enhanced knowledge regarding the application of risk analysis to impact based early warnings and early actions by using the information in the new probabilistic risk profile.

Output

The Grant will produce the following outputs :

• The country has a new probabilistic risk profile that is elaborated in a joint effort with national institutions, which is also available in a digital database, followed by a roadmap for the implementation of priority interventions that is informed by a cost benefit analysis.
• The national institutions have more capacities to use risk information for development planning, disaster risk reduction actions as well as early warning and early actions.

Suggested activities

Activity 1: Contextualize the project with partners while defining the scope and drawing up the plan.

• Inception: Assess and collect existing risk information (including on hazard, vulnerability and exposure) covering Togo from Global, regional and national sources and make data available in an accessible database. This should be done in line with the methodology and diagnostics outlined in the updated Words Into Action on Risk Assessment 2025.
• Conduct a comprehensive desktop analysis of existing DRR strategies, NAPs and action plans to pinpoint key interventions that have been prioritized by the government to reduce disaster risks and their current approximate level of investment from national and global sources.
• Responsibilities and timelines: establish responsibilities and timelines jointly with UNDRR and in coordination with national authorities and other relevant stakeholders. Set up the project, define the methodology, communication chains and complete a mapping of key stakeholders and users to be consulted during the project.
• Inception with the country: present the draft project approach, methodologies and timelines and gather input and feedback to customize the approach and seek engagement of national institutions/stakeholders.

Activity 2: Develop a national risk profile with the probabilistic approach and a digital online risk information system to inform policies and disaster risk reduction investments as well as reinforce the early warnings through impact-based forecasts.

• Preparation: define the policy and technical scopes, develop the data management plan, identify and/or develop required capacities. This phase should give a clear understanding of the process. The key actors need to be consulted and involved to emphasize the importance of the process and the results for them.
• Collect additional global, regional and national data on hazard, exposure and vulnerability that will be integrated into a digital database, and which can be used in development of the probabilistic model outputs. The database shall be managed by the Civil Protection national agency (ANPC) of Togo and more specifically the Situation room, which is currently under construction.
• Carry out the analysis and elaborate the risk profile: Define and utilize the methodology (probabilistic approach) that need to be adapted to the context; consider certain key elements such as existing data, disaster drivers and impacts as well as the climate change impacts. Elaborate the risk profile with the output of the analysis for communication to the stakeholders and its utilization. Integrate the output of the risk profile into the online database. This work should aim to show the probabilities of current and future risks to 2050 focusing on the most costly hazards. Results should be able to identify both risks but also opportunities to reduce risk through resilience building actions that can reduce the number of people affected and costs in the future. This work should be informed by UNDRR's emerging work to enhance risk and resilience metrics at the global level.
• Promote the utilization of the risk profiles: facilitate the understanding and appropriation of the risk profile by the decision makers in disaster risk management at national and sub-national levels.

Activity 3: Strengthen the capacities of national institutions in using risk information for decision-making at all levels for early warning and DRM.

• National workshops: Prepare and facilitate one national workshop in Lome, Togo. The workshop should bring together government cadres working at national and sub-national levels, focusing on early warning and early action with an emphasis on how the application of risk analysis can strengthen existing DRM capacities. It will take into account the legal framework for disaster risk reduction in the country and tailor the content on the needs and capacities of the national institutions. The focus will be on using risk information for decision making in DRR and for Impact based forecasts.

Activity 4: Identify priority interventions and costing.

• Provide an analysis of fiscal exposure of the country to AAL and PML currently and in the case that key priority investments are undertaken.
• Provide analysis of potential investment options or pathways at national level for the government to combine risk reduction, retention, and transfer methods to effectively reduce disaster fiscal exposure and risk and build resilience.

Activity 5: Cost-Benefit Analysis for Decision-Making to be used as a decision-support tool to evaluate and compare the identified DRR investment options. This entails:

• Simulation of various investment scenarios applying the probabilistic risk profile to assess the economic efficiency of 3-5 priority interventions being considered by the government as part of its DRR investment/ resilience building efforts.
• Identification of potential cost-effective investments by analysing potential avoided losses, return on investment, and long-term resilience benefits.

Activity 6: Strengthen the capacities of national institutions in using risk information for decision-making in fiscal and investment planning and in strengthening resilience to current and future shocks.

• Conduct a technical level orientation session for government counterparts on principles of risk modelling and its application in investment and fiscal decision making.
• Organize a national workshop with key policymakers and financiers and present the findings of the analysis and the opportunities for strengthening risk analysis systems in Togo.
• Develop a roadmap for the government on how to integrate economic rationale into possible DRR financing strategies, ensuring resources are allocated to interventions with the highest impact and sustainability.

Resources

1. Disaster Risk Pooling tool - Disaster Risk Pooling Tool
2. National disaster risk assessment: A guide for national practitioners | UNDRR
3. Technical guidance on comprehensive risk assessment and planning in the context of climate change | UNDRR
4. UNDRR's Risk Assessment and Planning Guide - Climate Adaptation Platform
5. Guidance Note on Using the Probabilistic Country Risk Profiles for Disaster Risk Management | UNDRR
6. Why invest in probabilistic risk assessment? | UNDRR
7. Deterministic & Probabilistic Risk
8. Words into Action
9. Insurance EU agriculture

Elements specific to the project that the grantee should know

All International and non-governmental organizations that wish to be considered partnership opportunities with UNDRR will need to register and create a profile on the United Nations Partner Portal (UNPP). Following verification of the profile information, partners will be eligible to apply to partnership opportunities with UNDRR as well as the UN Secretariat and all other participating UN Organizations.

We encourage you to start registration as soon as possible to avoid delays. Only registered organizations whose profile has been successfully verified will be considered eligible partners to apply for grant opportunities with UNDRR.

For more details on registration procedures please visit the UN Section of UNPP (https://www.unpartnerportal.org/registration)

Furthermore, the United Nations system requires all partners to be assessed regarding their capacity to prevent and respond to sexual exploitation and abuse. UNDRR encourages implementing partners to use the Protection from Sexual Exploitation and Abuse (PSEA) module in the UNPP. PSEA Module User Guide CSO Partner Members.

For this, priorities will be given to national and African regional institutions. We strongly encourage partnership with national or regional institutions working in the field of risk analysis or in the development of risk profiles. The following criteria will guide the selection of the grantee:

• Applicant to confirm that it has expertise in climate and disaster risk assessment and to provide certificates or qualifications of persons implementing the grant.
• Applicant to confirm that it has a minimum 10 years' experience in climate and disaster risk assessment demonstrated with clear examples of at least 5 programmes/projects of similar scope.
• Applicant expected to provide relevant information of their expertise in risk financing, including experience of conducting cost benefit analysis and capacitating national stakeholders to use risk information for investment in reducing disaster risk and early warning.

Budget and administrative-related aspects

The duration of the proposed project cannot exceed 12 months. The maximum amount requested from UNDRR for the implementation of this project cannot exceed 230 000 USD. The project proposal must not exceed 10 pages (attachments such as scanned copies of entity's registration, CVs of staff etc. do not count).

For this purpose, please fill in duly all the sections of the application form, include the required documents (scanned copy of NGO/IGO's registration certificate, CVs of staff etc.) and budget excel sheets, and send the complete application package (application form, budget excel sheets, entity registration certificate, CVs of staff, etc.) to the following email address: [email protected] cc: [email protected]

Reference: UNDRR CfP 2025/005 - Bridging the gaps in using risk information for decision making in disaster risk management and early warning in West Africa

Deadline for applications: 07 September 2025, midnight New York, USA EST (Eastern Standard Time). Incomplete and/or late applications will not be considered.

Projects' activities can include, amongst others, the following:

• seminars, workshops, trainings.
• capacity building activities.
• institutional strengthening activities and
• advocacy

The following types of activity will not be covered:

• capital expenditure, e.g. land, buildings, equipment and vehicles.
• individual scholarships for studies or training courses.
• supporting political parties, and
• sub-contracting

Due to the number of applications, only short-listed applicants will be notified.

Please note that the grant payment schedule will be determined with the selected grantee when finalizing the agreement. UNDRR standard practice is: not to exceed 40% of the requested amount upon signature of the grant agreement; remaining payments made based on a schedule of payments linked to production of project milestones and the final payment, 20%, will be paid after the end of the project, once final documents have been received, verified and approved by UNDRR.

Refund of grants: UNDRR may request organizations to refund, either in part or in whole any amounts paid in respect of a grant when:

• the project was not implemented in full or in part.
• the grant was spent for ineligible expenditures other than those mentioned in the budget proposal submitted to, and approved by UNDRR.
• no narrative, financial or audit report was submitted within the deadline established by the grant agreement.
• a narrative report and/or a financial report submitted was determined to be unsatisfactory.
• a negative evaluation of the project by UNDRR.
• any other valid reason provided by the UNDRR.