Permafrost Loss

Primary reference(s)

IPCC. 2019. Annex I: Glossary. N.M. Weyer (ed.). In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Accessed 21 January 2025.

Annotations

Key relevant UN convention / multilateral treaty

The UN Climate Change Paris Agreement (2015) builds upon the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and, for the first time, brings all nations into a common cause to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects, with enhanced support to assist low- and middle-income countries to do so. As such, it charts a new course in the global climate effort.

Drivers

Permafrost thaw is one of the leading factors increasing climate-related vulnerability (Murray et al., 2012). Changes in temperature and precipitation typically act as gradual (i.e. continuous) disturbances that directly affect permafrost by modifying the ground thermal regime. Climate warming can also modify the occurrence and magnitude of abrupt physical disturbances such as fire (Wotton et al., 2017), and soil subsidence and erosion resulting from ice-rich permafrost thaw (Lewkowicz and Way, 2019). These 'pulse' (i.e. discrete) disturbances are often part of the ongoing disturbance and successional cycle in Arctic and boreal ecosystems (Grosse et al., 2011), but changing rates of occurrence have recently been observed, altering the landscape distribution of successional ecosystem states (Farquharson et al., 2019).

Recent climate warming has been linked to increased wildfire activity in boreal forest regions in Alaska and western Canada (Gillett et al., 2004; Veraverbeke et al., 2017). Based on satellite imagery, an estimated 80,000 km2 of boreal area was burned globally per year from 1997 to 2011 (Giglio et al., 2013). During the summers of 2019 and 2020, the Arctic saw record wildfires, mainly in Siberia in areas underlain by permafrost peatland. There is high confidence that fire will accelerate change in permafrost relative to climate effects alone, if the rates of these disturbances increase. The observed trend of increasing fire is projected to continue for the rest of the 21st century across most of the tundra and boreal region under many climate scenarios (Meredith et al., 2019).

Impacts

Permafrost thaw can lead to ground subsidence—a process where the ground surface collapses due to the loss of underlying support. This can cause serious damage to infrastructure (e.g. roads, runways, buildings), with variable effects across infrastructure types. Disrupted transportation networks and threatened communities are among the potential consequences (Bastedo, 2007; GRID-Arendal, 2023). Impacts on infrastructure affect the health, economic livelihood and safety of communities. For example, in northern Canada, adapting or repairing infrastructure may cost several million to many billions of dollars, depending on damage extent and infrastructure type. The Tibbitt to Contwoyto winter road (Northwest Territories, Canada) experienced climate-related closures in 2006, remaining open for only 42 days compared to 76 in 2005 (Bastedo, 2007). Residents and businesses had to airlift supplies, costing millions of dollars. 

In the Northwest Territories, 10% of public access buildings have been retrofitted since 2004 due to critical structural malfunctions. In Inuvik, a local school experienced a complete roof collapse under heavy snowfall. As permafrost continues to thaw and structural integrity declines, snow loads may increasingly cause collapses (Bastedo, 2007; Murray et al., 2012). These rapid changes challenge planners, decision-makers and engineers, threatening infrastructure stability and functionality (Meredith et al., 2019). Climate and permafrost projections suggest a wide range of infrastructure is at risk (Melvin et al., 2017; Schneider von Deimling et al., 2020). A circumpolar study found that around 70% of infrastructure—including over 1,200 settlements (about 40 with populations over 5,000)—is located in areas where permafrost is projected to thaw by 2050 under RCP4.5 (Hjort et al., 2018). 

The geopolitical landscape of the Arctic is also affected. As permafrost thaws, previously inaccessible resources (e.g. minerals, oil and gas) become more accessible, potentially escalating competition and geopolitical tensions (Kalhoro, 2022; Marten, 2023). 

Freshwater quality and availability are also at risk. Thaw alters drainage patterns and contaminates water with carbon compounds, pathogens and pollutants such as mercury and lead (Schuster et al., 2018; Charlier et al., 2020; Christie, 2021; Rudnicka-Kępa & Zaborska, 2021). Disruption of meltwater-dependent ecosystems may also lead to biodiversity loss (Rani et al., 2021). 

Permafrost loss also alters ecosystems. For example, the ecology of thaw-impacted lakes and streams is likely to change, with microbiological communities adapting to changes in sediment, dissolved organic matter and nutrient levels (Vonk et al., 2015). 

Another primary concern associated with permafrost loss is the release of greenhouse gases. Permafrost acts as a large natural carbon sink, storing immense quantities of methane and carbon dioxide. As permafrost thaws, these potent greenhouse gases may be released into the atmosphere, accelerating climate change and further warming the planet. This may create a dangerous feedback loop, where rising temperatures drive permafrost thaw, which in turn releases more greenhouse gases, perpetuating the cycle (Turetsky et al., 2020). However, some researchers argue that this may not occur (Nitzbon et al., 2024).

Multi-hazard context

The figure below summarises common interactions between wetland loss or degradation and other hazards. This information should be used with caution and not be solely relied upon in disaster risk management, particularly as some interactions may not have been included. Note that hazardous events occurring together or locally in space or time may not necessarily cause, amplify, or be otherwise related to each other. Specific examples of multi-hazard context can be found in the ‘Hazard drivers’ and ‘Impacts’ sections above.

Multi-hazard diagram

Risk Management

Reducing and avoiding infrastructure impacts from climate change requires attention to engineering, land use planning, maintenance, culture, and budgeting. In some cases, relocating human settlements may be necessary (Meredith et al., 2019). Subsidence due to thawing permafrost and river and delta erosion makes coastal and rural communities in Alaska and Russia particularly vulnerable, potentially requiring relocation in the future (Romero Manrique et al., 2018).

Monitoring

The section and the table below provide an overview of monitoring for permafrost loss. This information can be used for forecasting within a national early warning system (EWS). Since EWS capacities and processes differ across countries, the most current and specific information regarding EWS should be obtained from the appropriate national or regional agency or authority responsible for disaster management.