Impact-based early warning for inclusive early action in IGAD

This case study examines the EarlyWarning4IGAD initiative, implemented in the IGAD region with pilot implementation in Kenya and Ethiopia. The initiative supports the transition from hazard-based forecasting to people-centred and impact-based early warning systems aligned with the Early Warnings for All initiative. It was implemented by ICPAC, UNU-EHS, CIMA Research Foundation and UNDRR, and developed and piloted a methodology for integrating exposure and vulnerability information into existing early warning and decision-support systems. The project combined hazard forecasting with participatory vulnerability profiling, statistical analysis, geospatial datasets and consultations with affected communities and disaster risk management actors.

The initiative demonstrated how vulnerability and exposure information can be operationally integrated into flood and drought forecasting to support targeted preparedness and anticipatory action. It produced vulnerability profiles and conceptual risk models for vulnerable population groups in Kenya and informed recommendations for inclusive warning dissemination, accessible preparedness measures and stronger institutional coordination. The project also strengthened the East Africa Hazard Watch and Drought Watch platforms and promoted a more people-centred approach to early warning aligned with the Sendai Framework and the Early Warnings for All agenda.