El Niño climate impact outlook -Somalia

The El Niño climate impact outlook Somalia examines the evolving El Niño conditions and the potential implications for the October–December 2026 Deyr season. The outlook highlights a credible risk of severe flooding in the Jubba and Shabelle river corridors if El Niño strengthens alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. While this scenario is not certain, the report emphasizes the value of early action given the lead time available and Somalia’s limited capacity to absorb additional shocks.

The report assesses how flood, drought, extreme heat and disease risks may interact with existing food insecurity, displacement and infrastructure vulnerabilities. It identifies the Jubba and Shabelle corridors as key areas of concern and highlights priorities for preparedness, including finalizing the collective flood anticipatory action framework and trigger protocols, strengthening early warning and evacuation planning, improving WASH and health readiness, and preparing for compounded displacement. The outlook also considers financing and recovery preparedness, including lessons from the 2023 floods and mechanisms to support a transition from anticipatory action to recovery.