Update on the probabilistic modelling of natural risks at global level: Global risk model

This study presents a risk assessment carried out in Colombia, Belize and Spain with an open model that can be used by every government or user: the CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) platform. This platform is open access, open source and has a modular architecture, and can be used free of cost.

This document shows that a global level analysis allows obtaining results that provide an idea of the magnitude of disaster risk at a national scale. This level of analysis also allows producing general classifications and rankings between the countries based on their risk, using relative indicators. These indicators are particularly useful to identify disaster risk in order to highlight the need of carrying out measures for risk reduction and encouraging countries to undertake risk assessment.

This document is a background paper for the 2015 Global Assessment on Disaster Risk Reduction.