Knowing what the weather will do: A guide for practitioners on impact-based early warning

This guidebook provides a novel approach and methodology for designing and implementing IbEW systems. Drawing on the outcomes of a research project in Eastern Africa, it guides the co-development and integration of risk knowledge on hazards, exposure, vulnerabilities and impacts into operational hazard forecasting systems. Impact-based early warning (IbEW) is an emerging paradigm that aims at enhancing the effectiveness of hazard early warning by moving from forecasting “what the weather will be” to knowing what “it will do”.

Of particular interest to technical experts working at national, regional or continental levels, this guidebook:

• Offers insights into what IbEW is, and how integrating risk knowledge with hazard-based forecasts enables more effective and targeted early actions 
• Presents a novel framework, standardized methodology and step-by-step guidance for designing and implementing IbEW 
• Uses a concrete application example to showcase how the put the framework and methodology into practice