Webinar: Monitoring, Outlook and Preparedness for a Potential El Niño 2026–2027

Background and context 

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), including both El Niño and La Niña phases, is a naturally occurring ocean-atmosphere phenomenon characterized by anomalous warming or cooling of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These changes alter climate patterns at regional and global scales. In some regions, they can lead to heavy rainfall, flooding, landslides and impacts on fisheries, agriculture, health and infrastructure, while in others they may result in droughts and extreme temperature variations. These potential impacts make continuous monitoring of ENSO conditions essential to understanding their evolution, issuing timely early warnings and strengthening decision-making for disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and the protection of the most vulnerable populations and productive sectors.

Recently, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a statement indicating that an El Niño episode is expected to develop from mid-2026 onwards. The WMO highlighted a clear shift in conditions across the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures increasing rapidly. 

At the regional level, the International Research Centre on El Niño (CIIFEN), in its April 2026 El Niño/La Niña Bulletin for Latin America, indicated that among the current climate outlooks for El Niño development, there is approximately a 20 per cent probability that the event could reach a very strong category.

Given the high likelihood of El Niño conditions developing in 2026, strengthening regional preparedness for its potential impacts is essential. In this context, the webinar shared the latest outlooks, as well as previous experiences and good practices for preparedness from the perspective of different sectors. 

Objective

To promote preparedness for potential climate impacts by discussing lessons learned across different productive sectors, with the aim of fostering collective learning. 

Summary

The webinar brought together representatives from governments, international organizations, technical institutions and other relevant stakeholders from across the region to examine the latest outlooks regarding a potential El Niño episode in 2026–2027 and to reflect on the actions needed to strengthen preparedness for its possible impacts.

The webinar took place against the backdrop of recent forecasts issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which pointed to the possible development of a new El Niño episode from mid-2026 onwards. Participants also reviewed estimates presented in CIIFEN’s April 2026 bulletin, which indicated an approximately 20 per cent probability that the event could reach a very strong category. These elements served as a starting point for a regional discussion on the importance of preparedness and anticipatory action.

Throughout the various presentations, speakers emphasized that the impacts of El Niño extend beyond rainfall deficits or excess precipitation and can trigger cascading impacts that highlight the systemic nature of disaster risk. Examples related to prolonged droughts, wildfires, flooding and other sectoral impacts were discussed, underscoring the need for integrated approaches to preparedness and response.

The webinar also provided an opportunity to explore the importance of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS) and to highlight the United Nations Secretary-General’s Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative, emphasizing its role in strengthening anticipatory capacity and risk-informed decision-making.

Presentations and panel discussions further demonstrated that the impacts of El Niño manifest differently across countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean. Examples included prolonged droughts in the Dry Corridor and the Andes, heavy rainfall and flooding along the South Pacific coast, as well as heatwaves and wildfires in the Amazon. Participants also emphasized that the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the characteristics of the phenomenon itself, but also on levels of exposure and vulnerability, as well as the preparedness and response capacities of each country.

Another key message that emerged from the discussions was the importance of translating the growing availability of climate data, monitoring and forecasting information into timely decisions and concrete preparedness actions. In this regard, the webinar facilitated the exchange of experiences and lessons learned among technical institutions, international organizations and key sectors across the region.

Finally, participants highlighted the importance of relying on information from official and scientifically validated sources. There was broad consensus that access to reliable information is fundamental to strengthening preparedness, supporting decision-making and reducing the risks associated with climate phenomena such as El Niño.

The event was organized by the Regional Office for the Americas and the Caribbean of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), in collaboration with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the International Research Centre on El Niño (CIIFEN) and the United Nations Thematic Coalition on Climate Change and Resilience.