Webinar: Monitoring, outlook and preparedness for a potential El Niño 2026–2027

El Niño and La Niña are a natural alteration of the ocean–atmosphere system, characterized by the anomalous warming or cooling of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which in turn shifts climate patterns at the regional and global scales. In some regions, they can trigger heavy rainfall, floods, landslides and impacts on fisheries, agriculture, health and infrastructure; in others, they can lead to droughts and extreme temperature swings. These potential impacts make continuous monitoring essential — it is what allows us to understand how these phenomena evolve, issue early warnings, and strengthen decision-making aimed at disaster risk management and reduction, climate change adaptation, and the protection of the most vulnerable populations and productive sectors.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently issued a statement indicating that an El Niño episode is expected to form from mid-2026 onwards. WMO has noted a clear shift in the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures rising rapidly. According to Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Head of Climate Prediction at WMO, "the models indicate that this could be an intense episode, but the so-called spring predictability barrier adds uncertainty to the forecasts issued at this time of year."

At the regional level, the International Research Centre on El Niño (CIIFEN), in its latest bulletin of April 2026 on El Niño/La Niña in Latin America, notes that — among the climate outlooks for the development of El Niño — there is approximately a 20% probability that it will be a very strong event.

Given the high probability of an El Niño episode developing in 2026, strengthening the region's preparedness for its potential impacts is critical. To that end, the webinar will share updated outlooks, alongside previous experiences and best practices for preparedness, from the perspective of different sectors.

Objectives

To foster preparedness for potential climate impacts through the discussion of lessons learned across different productive sectors, with a view to promoting collective learning.

Participants

• Cooperation, development and disaster risk management agencies.
• Public institutions.
• National disaster risk management and reduction offices.
• Technical and scientific institutions linked to the monitoring of hydrometeorological phenomena: National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS), Regional Climate Centres (RCC), research centres.
• Academic institutions.
• Climate-sensitive sectors.