Costa Rica: Multi-hazard probabilistic risk assessment for resilience

This case study was collected through a Call for Good Practices on Reducing Risk across SDG Transitions, launched by the UN DRR Focal Points Group in 2024.

SDGs addressed: 2 | 4 | 6

Costa Rica is exposed to earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and landslides. Historically, risk studies focused on direct physical losses, leaving indirect economic impacts invisible. In 2022-23 the National Commission for Emergencies (CNE), UNDRR and technical contractor ERN International completed an 18-month probabilistic, multi-hazard risk assessment-the first of its kind at national scale in the region. Through multi-sector data sharing and stakeholder workshops, the project produced validated loss curves for infrastructure, housing, water and sanitation, capturing supply-chain and public-service disruptions. The results now inform resilient-investment decisions and new disaster-risk-financing instruments.

Innovation & Success Factors

• Indirect-loss modelling revealed macro-economic ripple effects previously overlooked.
• Peril-agnostic methodology-the same framework can add hurricanes or landslides when data mature.
• Risk-literacy workshops turned complex outputs into decision-ready information for ministries and insurers.

Key impacts

• Authoritative national loss curves for earthquakes & floods (direct + indirect).
• Financial innovation - data underpin risk-transfer tools (e.g., catastrophe bonds, Global Shield discussions).
• Policy leverage - evidence feeds new regulations for resilient infrastructure and DRR financing.
• Capacity built - 80+ officials, academics and private-sector actors trained in probabilistic analysis.
• Replication path - same arithmetic can down-scale to provincial level, subject to data availability.

Lessons learned for replication or adaptation

1. Include indirect impacts to expose hidden vulnerabilities.
2. Organised national datasets accelerate modelling.
3. Embed capacity-building for sustained use and updates.
4. Engage finance stakeholders early so risk data translate into investment criteria.
5. Start with high-impact hazards, expand incrementally as data improve.

Organisations involved

• Lead UN entity: UNDRR
• National lead: National Commission for Emergencies (CNE)
• Technical partner: ERN International
• Advisory group: RSTAG members in Costa Rica